THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a slowdown in global growth to 3% this year and 2.9% in 2024 due to increasing disparities.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stated at the launch of the World Economic Outlook that while the global economy is recovering from COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the cost-of-living crisis, it is still “limping along, not quite sprinting yet.”
The IMF revised growth forecasts for China and the euro zone, citing low global growth, while increasing U.S. growth forecasts due to robust business investment and consumption..
China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.2% in 2024 due to property crises and weak demand, while Japan’s growth is predicted to be 2.0%, driven by pent-up demand and inbound tourism. Japan’s 2024 growth outlook remains unchanged at 1.0%.
Gourinchas criticized the medium-term outlook for emerging economies, citing slower living standard recovery and increased debt concerns.
Headline and core inflation are expected to decline, with headline inflation decreasing from 9.2% in 2022 to 5.9% this year and 4.8% in 2024. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, is expected to gradually decrease to 4.5% next year.
The IMF predicts that most countries are unlikely to achieve inflation targets until 2025.